LEADERSHIP INSIGHTS

Seven months into the year, the picture business leaders are navigating has only grown more complex. Geopolitical shocks continue to ripple through global trade, capital markets are recalibrating after a volatile start to the year and questions over AI valuations sit alongside genuine, accelerating change on the ground. Some sectors are riding a real tailwind. Others are contending with a harder, more uneven road. 

 

Criticaleye spoke to Members of its global Community for their mid-year view on the trends and watchpoints shaping the second half of 2026. 

 

This is what they said: 

 

Robin Hu, Chair, Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust 

 

ASEAN now survives by being the place neither Washington nor Beijing can afford to lock out. It doesn't win by choosing a side. 

 

The picture is uneven beneath the headline numbers. Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore are doing the structural work, absorbing displaced manufacturing and capital, becoming the jurisdiction multinationals route through precisely because they are stable, predictable and non-aligned. 

 

What most outside observers miss: this is no longer a growth story. It is a permission story. Capital is no longer asking where the best return is. It is asking where it can operate without being forced to pick a flag. China's slowdown does not threaten the region; it reallocates opportunity to whoever can absorb the overflow without provoking either superpower.  

 

The strategic priority for leadership teams now is simple to state and hard to execute: build a business that can be moved, not one forced to choose. Spread entities, IP and balance sheets across enough jurisdictions that no single capital ever holds your future hostage. That is no longer contingency planning. It is the operating model Boards should be building toward. 

 

Dave Plumer, Vice Chair and Non-executive Director, Food Animal Concerns Trust and Board Mentor, Criticaleye

 

The US domestic economy has outperformed initial 2026 growth expectations, recording solid Q1 GDP growth and resilient productivity, although persistent supply-chain shocks and elevated inflation continue to challenge consumers and policymakers. 

 

The conflict with Iran has introduced significant inflationary headwinds, primarily through upward pressure on global oil and energy prices ... In response, the Federal Reserve, under new leadership, remains focused on 'price stability' and has held the federal funds rate firm in the 3.5 to 3.75 percent range to help temper inflation pressures. 

 

The US labour market is currently characterised by a 'low-hire, low-fire' dynamic, with the unemployment rate stabilising in the mid-four percent range. Challenges are emerging for business leaders grappling with rising wage demands which outpace real earnings growth, while their workforce faces persistent affordability issues. 

 

Regarding the recent SpaceX IPO, the $75 billion debut and subsequent market volatility highlight a nuanced reality. While it underscores robust private capital returning to public markets, the intense speculation surrounding this listing and upcoming AI IPOs does raise concerns about potential tech sector froth and highly elevated PE ratios on Wall Street. 

 

Overall, the US economic outlook for the remainder of 2026 remains resilient, with projected GDP growth of approximately 2.3 percent. This outlook outpaces the projected growth of other advanced economies, such as Canada at 1.5 percent and the Eurozone at 1.8 percent. 

 

Aimie Stone, Chief Economist, ADS Group 

 

The most significant tailwind is the renewed recognition that security, resilience and industrial capability are strategic assets. Across NATO and allied nations, defence budgets are rising and governments are increasingly viewing industrial capacity, supply-chain resilience and sovereign capabilities as critical components of national security.  

 

Businesses are operating in a more volatile global environment. Trade disruption, energy price pressures and wider geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty around investment and growth decisions. 

 

Businesses need stable, long-term policy signals. Clear defence spending plans, certainty around industrial priorities and long-term programmes encourage investment throughout supply chains. The UK must remain a globally competitive location to design, manufacture and innovate. That means maintaining support for R&D, improving access to finance and ensuring businesses can scale successfully. Government and industry need to work more closely together. The sectors are no longer simply beneficiaries of economic growth; they are increasingly becoming enablers of it. 

 

The most important point is that aerospace, defence, security and space should no longer be viewed as niche sectors. They sit at the intersection of economic growth, national security, technological innovation and regional prosperity. If the UK can combine policy certainty, patient capital, skills investment and industrial ambition, these industries have the potential to become one of the defining engines of UK growth over the next decade. 

 

 

 

Mohammed Chaudhri, Chief Economist and Director of Market Intelligence, Experian 

 

At the start of the year, inflation was the key determinant of a squeeze in living standards. Businesses were really worried about what that was going to lead to ... Recession hasn't materialised. Consumers are still spending, equity markets are close to record highs and yet for almost every executive I speak to, especially in the UK, it still feels like growth is difficult. 

 

We're in what I would describe as 'resilience without escape velocity'. I think we've settled into a new normal, especially in the UK economy, where we'll continue to see growth, but very low growth. We've avoided many of the worst-case scenarios, but at the same time we're not generating that productivity and the investment needed to really take us to the next phase of stronger growth. 

 

I still think that inflation will continue to rise to the end of this year, but maybe to three-and-a-half percent, which is much closer to the two percent target... I think the risk of it turning into double digits is definitely well behind us. 

 

When economists say the consumer is resilient, it's true, but it's incomplete. There isn't one consumer any more, there are multiple consumer economies.  As executives, as businesses, you need to increasingly understand not whether consumers are spending, but which consumers are spending. 

 

Tom Attenborough, Head of International Business Development, Primary Markets, London Stock Exchange 

 

The FTSE 100 is up close to 6 percent so far this year, and the FTSE 250 is up by 4.0 percent. That compares to 10.7 percent growth for the S&P and a 5.5 percent drop for the Hang Seng. The Euro Stoxx index is up 8.7 percent. 

 

We've seen seven IPOs raise close to $800 million at the London Stock Exchange this year. Including further issuance, we've seen close to $10 billion raised – a combination of companies coming back to our markets to raise capital to fund organic growth and some to fund acquisitions, which I think is always a good sign of confidence in Boardrooms. 

 

I certainly think the IPO pipeline is getting back towards a more normal distribution... Private equity over the last few years has had a very good run, largely due to low interest rates. Now, at four-and-a-half percent [interest rates] they have to work a bit harder to generate returns; they still have to make realisations and get scores on the board through exits or partial exits before raising their next fund. 

 

The SpaceX IPO was a phenomenon, in terms of size and in the way it was executed. With a number of other very big market-cap companies, such as OpenAI and Anthropic, also expected to go public, the market is closely monitoring their performance to see how it impacts institutional and retail investor confidence. The current focus on megacaps in the US provides London with a real opportunity for some very substantial companies who now feel too small to get attention in New York. 

 

Matthew Blagg, CEO, Criticaleye 

 

If you took the beginning of the year, most people would have talked about geopolitical issues being very significant. So, in that sense, the Iran conflict fits into geopolitical complexity and, as such, you could argue it wasn't a complete unknown. But ultimately, that would underestimate the level of what's happened, because whilst one expected some geopolitical turbulence, that has impacted on two key areas that fit into global trade: the oil price and the driver of scarcity, which has driven up price, which has driven up inflation, and that also has driven up capital cost. 

 

As economists will tell you, you almost can't predict things. So much emanates from the geopolitical landscape and the implications, and what happens in America, and whether that impacts this year or next. Bond markets are a key thing to look at, and they continue to drift up. 

 

If you take the balance of risk and opportunity, I think both are really strong at the moment. There's a real opportunity to drive faster, to create new models, and capital will flow fast into it. On the risk side, there is a real danger of debt continuing to get more expensive — the missteps for businesses, the danger of moving very fast, is that you can get something wrong, and so you're seeing litigation issues rise. 

 

This is a dialled-up environment where you've got to be very clear in leadership. You've got to make sure that you've got a team of competent people, but there will continue to be consolidation and opportunity, because at the end of the day, there's more to do on that front. 

Bridgette Hall, Senior Editor, Criticaleye

Anna Mitchell, Editorial Intern, Criticaleye

Jacob Ambrose Willson, Senior Editor, Criticaleye