EY ITEM Club Spring Forecast 2021

This report by EY ITEM Club explores the UK’s economic growth prospects for 2021. It forecasts a significant improvement, with the economy to grow 6.8 percent this year rather than the 5.0 percent growth suggested in January.
 
The improved near-term outlook means the UK economy is expected to regain its pre-COVID-19 peak in the second quarter of 2022. With a faster recovery in 2021 pulling growth forward, EY ITEM Club now expects growth of 5.0 percent in 2022 (down from 6.5 percent in January), 2.1 percent in 2023 (up from 2.0 percent) and 1.7 percent in 2024 (down from 1.8 percent).
 
 
Key findings include:
  • The UK economy is forecast to return to its pre-COVID-19 peak in Q2 2022, three months earlier than previously forecast.
  • A solid recovery is expected to develop from Q2 as restrictions are progressively eased and the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out continues. 
  • The Bank of England has not made any further adjustments to monetary policy since enacting an additional £150bn of asset purchases last November, which took the targeted total up to £895bn. 
  • Interest rates remain at a record low of 0.10 percent. With a decent recovery expected to get underway from Q2 2021 and inflation poised to pick up, EY suspect that the Bank of England’s ultimate next move will be to tighten monetary policy, initially through edging interest rates up.
 




Related Insights

Read, watch & listen to some of the latest thought leadership from our Community.

Inspiring Leaders Podcast: Le...

In this episode, we hear from Sean Latus, Group CEO at Calisen, as he reflects on his transition from CFO to CEO and the realities of leading a complex organisation in today’s business climate.  Hosted by...

Click here to download this insight
Europe's AI Reckoning: Reinve...

Europe’s productivity challenge is growing and the clear root cause is underinvestment in technology. In this report, Criticaleye Partner Accenture explores the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to bo...

Click here to download this insight
Are Women Leaders Driving our...

How are women leaders responding to disruption in today’s uncertain world? This report from Criticaleye Partner AlixPartners draws on insights from its latest Disruption Index to reveal that women in leadership ar...


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Displaying 1 to 3 of 409




Palo Alto Networks NatWest Group Royal London Group Worldpay Salesforce Accenture Lightsource bp Google Hitachi Solutions NATS Concentrix Redwood Bank Aldermore Group Experian Amazon UK FTSE Women Leaders Review AlixPartners Rolls-Royce Drax Group plc IBM Consulting London Stock Exchange Group E.ON UK Legal & General British Land LDC GlaxoSmithKline plc Workday Eightfold AI