Home | Login | Contact

Who    What    Why



EY ITEM Club Spring Forecast

This report by the EY ITEM Club projects a record downgrading of our near-term outlook for the UK economy, predicting UK GDP will contract by 6.8 percent in 2020, compared to the growth of 1.2 percent they had projected in January.

Key points include:
  • 44 percent of consumer spending — the major engine of UK growth over the last couple of decades — is at risk of either being delayed or lost completely
  • On the assumption that the UK and EU avoid a ‘no-deal’ outcome at the end of 2020, this report expects the economy to grow 4.5 percent in 2021. Even so, the economy is not expected to return to its Q4 2019 size until 2023
  • The economy had been disappointingly lacklustre over the first two months of 2020 even before coronavirus started to become a factor, as a marked pick-up in consumer and business confidence resulting from reduced uncertainties following December’s general election and the UK leaving the EU with a deal on 31 January failed to translate into clearly improved activity.

Click here to download this insight

Related Experts

Mark Gregory
Chief Economist, UK & Ireland

Related Insights

Budget 2020 The Impact of COVID-19
Other Insights Contributed by EY, More London Place:
EY Megatrends Report 2020 Rethinking Executive Pay EY ITEM Club Summer Forecast Executive Pay: AGM Insights 2020 EY NED Barometer Adapting to a Different Normal 2020 Global Corporate Divestment Study Building Back Better: EY Attractiveness Survey Transforming Through ESG Into the Unknown Budget 2020 EY ITEM Club Autumn Forecast Trends in Foreign Direct Investment in the UK's Towns Special Report on Consumer Spending Standing Tall Energizing the Enterprise Journey to 5G and IoT Tipping Point Warning Signs Governing Culture UK Economy Surrounded by Brexit Fog The Price of Uncertainty Rebalancing the Economy Bridging the Gap Embankment Project for Inclusive Capitalism Corporate Governance on AIM IPO Eye: Q3 2018 Can the Economy Overcome Heightened Brexit Uncertainties? Demonstrating Purpose, Creating Value 2018 UK Corporate Governance Code and New Legislation Tech Listings Fuelling the London IPO Market

Related Insights

Your Peers Also Read

CFO Research Results 2017 CEO Research Results 2019 The CFO as an Enabler Tech and Talent in Asia The Three Lines of Offense