EY ITEM Club Autumn Forecast

This report by EY ITEM Club says GDP grew by around 17 percent in Q3 – much faster than the 12 percent predicted in July’s summer forecast. However, growth of 1 percent or less is expected in Q4, while the forecast for 2021 has been lowered from 6.5 to 6.0 percent.

After Q3’s boost, the EY ITEM Club now expects the economy to contract 10.1 percent in 2020, an improvement from the 11.5 percent contraction forecast in the summer.

Key findings include:

• GDP likely grew around 16-17 percent in Q3 2020 – four-to-five percentage points faster than had been expected.
• However, the EY ITEM Club expects Q4 growth will be 1 percent or less.
• The UK economy is predicted to grow 6.0 percent in 2021, down from the 6.5 percent expansion previously anticipated.
• EY ITEM Club does not expect the UK economy to return to its pre-pandemic size until after mid-2023.